IDM conference, 6 November 2024
Sebastian Funk
https://epiforecasts.io
Anticipate healthcare demand
Design interventions
Plan clinical trials
1-week ahead forecasts produced by SPI-M for SAGE in the UK.
Observed behaviour as predictor: improvement of forecasts, but only once age-specific reporting is taken into account.
https://github.com/epiforecasts/forecast.vocs
https://github.com/jbracher/branching_process_delta
Sherratt et al., in progress
For forecasts to be available when it most matters we need models and infrastructure ready to be deployed.
Charniga et al., Epidemics, 2024
(for more on mpox forecasting see also Will Green’s poster)
Any model of the future is a prediction and can be evaluated as such.
Slides at
https://epiforecasts.io/slides/idm_20241106.html